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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • What has led to “the relative decline in U.S. standing,” as the report asks? The opening chapter explains America’s problem starkly: “Its competitive position is threatened both from within (in terms of slowing productivity growth, an aging population, a polarized political system, and an increasingly corrupted information environment) and outside (in terms of a rising direct challenge from China and declining deference to U.S. power from dozens of developing nations).”

    This decline is “accelerating,” warns the study. …

    What causes national decline? The Rand authors cite triggers that are all too familiar in 2024. “Addiction to luxury and decadence,” “failure to keep pace with … technological demands,” “ossified” bureaucracy, “loss of civic virtue,” “military overstretch,” “self-interested and warring elites,” “unsustainable environmental practices.” Does that sound like any country you know?

    The challenge is “anticipatory national renewal,” argue the authors — in other words, tackling the problems before they tackle us. Their survey of historical and sociological literature identifies essential tools for renewal, such as recognizing the problem; adopting a problem-solving attitude rather than an ideological one; having good governance structures; and, perhaps most elusive, maintaining “elite commitment to the common good.”

    No chance in hell on that last one, so here’s hoping the rest of their analysis is right.







  • Of course, capitalists want to maximize profits - so long as their power isn’t threatened. And in all three of these cases, they wanted to send a message to any other countries that would dare not toe the line: “you could be next”.

    While they certainly would have preferred different outcomes in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, they may well have succeeded in “containing” communism and intimidating independent thinking - certainly Gaddafi got the message and hoped letting in western oil companies would be enough appeasement. And we know how that turned out…