Let’s say Trump wins and Europe loses its security guarantee from the US.

Then the EU beefs up its military and coordinate its combined forces and military production up to the point that they are no longer in need of US military assistance in future conflicts.

What will be the ramifications for the US if this was to play out in terms of trade, geo political influence etc.

  • intensely_human@lemm.ee
    4·
    10 months ago

    The ramifications are that the USA would lose its position as world hegemonic power.

    But that’s happening anyway. I’ve heard Ray Dalio’s argument about China being the next country up in a big cycle of hegemony, and it makes a lot of sense.

    The basics are that in a period of upheaval, the US currency will devalue making the US’s ability to project power weaker, creating a reduction in the monopolarity of military power, and an eruption of military violence. It will begin as proxy wars and end up as fighting between the old and new hegemon. The new hegemon’s currency will take over as the most trusted currency of international trade.

    There’s a lot more detail to the whole thing, but that’s somewhat of the gist.

    The US took over the hegemon role from Britain, which won it from Spain, which took it from Denmark, if I’m remembering this right. Each of those transfers of world hegemony involved that same collection of connected events:

    • old power has global military dominance
    • their currency becomes international standard
    • projected power is costly
    • somehow hyperinflation happens
    • reducing purchasing power and ability to maintain the global military presence
    • they pull back to save resources
    • new hegemon gathers influence in un-covered places
    • fighting breaks out as result of more symmetric power distribution
    • it morphs into old hegemon vs new
    • new hegemon wins
    • triggering change in dominant currency
    • fueling their expansion from “new hegemon” to “the hegemon, duh”

    We all grew up in the “The US, duh” era. When that was the answer to which country was top dog, which country would adjudicate in global questions, which country’s citizenship you want your kids to have to be safe and successful, etc.

    By the end of our lives (I’m speaking from age 41, so y’all’s experience varies on this), by the end of my generation’s lives, we’ll probably be in the early part of the “China, duh” part.

    But we’ll have a few decades where it’s the “Well actually, it’s China now” era. Where China’s on top, not only economically but morally and culturally, as a trusted world authority and the government the aliens meet with in the sci fi movies. But that it’s noticeably new.

    Just like there was basically the “Britain, duh” phase, where anyone on earth would use “The King of England” any time they wanted to conversationally refer to the most powerful man in the world. It was just known.